Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 62854.826009 66496.697640 70142.030189 74061.785374 78154.571392 82299.105092 86810.444801
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 57423.491891 63014.150110 68770.044362 75129.937681 81951.125344 89038.358381 96949.554104
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 53219.365723 60119.211296 67382.378079 75579.370378 84554.034147 94062.526204 104879.157484
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 49718.892621 57562.859718 65975.783915 75639.599935 86402.136104 97988.617241 111373.148392
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 47044.851505 55654.726835 65041.217076 75989.595462 88362.559519 101865.502397 117667.978638
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 44602.217542 53815.458485 64010.149589 76066.653382 89871.949717 105121.964265 123175.526372
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 43099.218342 52928.816372 63950.813229 77146.408598 92431.778466 109497.157074 129903.268194
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 41070.439588 51312.876011 62946.675854 77040.330901 93548.051836 112165.875093 134641.038494
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39980.665496 50729.696406 63080.528974 78201.100052 96086.394800 116438.787849 141213.620251
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 38774.671285 49939.673513 62911.689513 78953.576613 98106.997009 120087.776718 147056.377723
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 37276.629257 48727.164381 62177.875799 78977.541520 99220.376763 122644.005838 151603.531164
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 35833.614231 47519.939789 61394.398366 78889.656332 100156.660551 124960.116718 155849.427727
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 35071.950795 47137.540592 61604.444511 80008.533438 102561.862272 129056.215492 162271.165793
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 34215.347543 46601.480920 61598.431757 80843.310940 104614.531596 132737.185547 168222.015761
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 33211.059408 45837.808208 61275.419802 81257.105226 106132.124749 135765.360058 173393.738878
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 32097.717329 44892.502750 60687.817235 81307.898566 107176.672769 138204.766786 177849.879921
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 31197.489824 44188.493224 60374.411660 81675.967365 108594.978006 141090.422928 182852.674567
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 30219.484749 43347.957435 59856.131609 81757.033306 109633.601971 143498.406833 187270.233323
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29762.906086 43176.182298 60180.588957 82900.624402 112003.983130 147555.934332 193739.257911
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28791.577244 42285.987993 59546.616057 82788.247474 112765.736646 149606.312241 197723.217020
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 28432.682799 42204.889192 59956.312643 84017.576832 115235.135402 153796.132858 204391.474119
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27914.879347 41889.097592 60042.292495 84814.388396 117146.234711 157290.408933 210207.137417
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 27111.518918 41156.873929 59554.568299 84839.763665 118049.213015 159507.491597 214422.058259